DSCC Poll Can't Bring Martin Above 36%

Well Schumer and Martin are up to it again, this time with their good friend the Mellman group involved.

They have cooked the books and released a poll suggesting Jim Martin is within striking distance of Republican incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

This is funny for several reasons:

1. This poll was paid for by the DSCC and to the Mellman Group, a polling agency that was used extensively by the Clintons back in the day to boost their own numbers publicly.
2. The poll likely used a set of likely voters that is completely unrealistic. Something like 90% African American turnout and 20% White male turnout.
3. Even with this manipulation of the numbers they could not legitimately bring Jim Martin above 36% of "likely voters."
4. Even with this manipulation they couldn't bring Saxby below 42%.

If they are going to be honest about this poll and claim it has any credibility I'd call on the Mellman Group to release its demographic breakdown of what it claims are likely voters used in this poll.

These polls are used to to and drive donors to the campaign so now they can say "hey look we're within striking distance." What Martin doesn't realize is it can backfire so the Chambliss campaign can say "hey look, we've got a target on our back."

Both will likely happen, and Martin has already used the line to get new money out of Senate leaders adding to his PAC money with a donation from Sen. Byron Dorgan's PAC.

Congrats Jim Martin on being the status quo.

The Final Weekend (for some)

Entering this final weekend of the Georgia Primary season (pre-runoffs) I figure I'd do another power rankings to reflect the new poll by Insider Advantage.

First things first, I don't really trust the poll numbers for three major reasons:

1. Its InsiderAdvantage
2. Nobody can really accurately predict turnout in this race for Senate.
3. Its InsiderAdvantage
   

Sure there are things we do know about. Rand Knight is has about 25 paid staffers making phone calls to get out the vote for him. Most likely these are the union types that endorsed him, which surprises me that they would actually come out and have "feet on the ground" for a candidate polling in the middle single digits.

Second, Dale Cardwell is airing a limited (and by limited I mean very limited) television spot this weekend. The spot will air in Atlanta and Macon but with only $20k cash on hand and refusing to go into debt, Dale can probably afford the bare minimum.

Third, the new poll puts Jim Martin into his first lead of the race. This is attributed by Jim Galloway to his presence on tv that PACs and the Dem. national party have paid for.

Yet here goes nothing with the latest and perhaps last power rankings before the primary:

5. Josh Lanier - Will finish 5th in the polls guaranteed. If Maggie Martinez was still in it they would have probably fought for this spot but I would think that there are better odds in getting Michael Vick as a PETA sponsor than Lanier breaking out of the last place spot.

4. Rand Knight - You may be thinking "but he has all that union and netroots support!" I know I know! But as I've previously detailed, the netroots don't mean squat. Especially in this race. Rand may have the hairstyle for the job, but he just doesn't have the experience, demeanor, or votes to get there. Knight will finish with about 10 percent of the vote. I'd be surprised if he breaks out of the 4th place spot.

3. Jim Martin - I've really got to go with my gut here. Well that and Strategic Vision. I just cannot see supporters of the blandest candidate in this race turning out to vote for this man. Martin's campaign is only mentioned as a contender because he was able to raise the most money of the Democrats (which still wasn't even on Saxby Chambliss' radar). Martin's campaign has faced repeated bumps in the road from missed endorsements to attacks from his rivals. If Martin makes this runoff, its in no part to the campaign run by his staff and him, and only due to voters discontent with the other candidates. He will miss the runoff, though not by much.

------------------------------------------------------
The runoff point

2. Dale Cardwell - I've got to give it to Dale. He has run a very good campaign for the extremely limited resources he has. Sure the whole climbing up the poll stunt might be mocked now (and have cost him over $10,000 to pull off), but at least it got people's attention. Dale has a limited appeal statewide and really should only expect to pull numbers from the Atlanta area, but that will be enough. He is a ferocious campaigner and a fearless debater going after both Jim Martin and Vernon Jones repeatedly and with actual facts behind him. He does come across as fake at times and goes overboard a little too often, I think he will make it (narrowly) into the runoff.

1. Vernon Jones - I love Vernon Jones. He provides the best storylines of the political season. Who would think a man accused of rape, fined for illegal contributions, and hated by his police would be the leading contender to lose to Saxby Chambliss? Vernon has been milking the race card for his entire campaign now, and well, who can blame him. He is trying to ride Obama's coat tails into the Democratic nomination and it appears to be working amongst African American, Atlantan voters. Now here is the big question: will they come out to vote in a primary that doesn't have Obama's name on the ballot? Signs lean towards yes as the DeKalb County CEO's race is also up for grabs this year in a bitter primary fight. And maybe enough people were tricked by his campaigning into thinking Obama does support him. Who knows. But what is likely is that he will make the primary, before white voters turn against him and elect whoever makes that number 2 spot into the next Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate.

All in all, this has been an entertaining run. From that first debate in Forsyth County (where Maggie Martinez said she was running for the U.S. Congress of Senate) to the most previous debate (where Rand Knight arrived halfway through, most likely due to a hair appointment running long), it has been entertaining.

There is still one last weekend, and anything can happen as evidenced by Vernon Jones' existence and Jim Martin's hairpiece not falling off yet.

Jim Martin and Rand Knight accumulate debt!

Well Jim Martin has been pressured by this blog (yes I'm taking all credit) into finally disclosing his fundraising and the numbers confirm what I suspected.

A pathetic fundraising period ending with Martin being $144,663.33 in debt!  Martin's donations are also dominated by Atlanta lawyers.  Martin loved to tout himself as the candidate who could bring in the money but this just proves again how lethargic his campaign has become.

But Martin isn't alone: Rand Knight continues to pile on his campaign debt which now totals $66,828!  But really heres the juicy details: Knight has loaned himself over $70,000! 

Martin and Knight's paltry pulls clearly confirm that their "endorsements" (if you can even call them that) don't mean squat!   They continue to run stagnant campaigns that draw little or no support.

Martin's FEC Page

Knight's FEC Page

Update: Rand Knight now has joined Jim Martin in taking PAC money.  This time $2000 from the Teamsters.  Congrats Rand! on selling your soul!

Tip O' The Hat and Jim Martin's Amnesty

Tip o' the hat to the kind Erick Erickson who has mentioned this blog over at Peach Pundit. Many thanks. (Update: My apologies to Tondee's Tavern for not mentioning them also I must have overlooked that post, but thank you Ed my favorite poster at Tondee's for the kind mention.)

Now onto some news. Over at the Political Insider (with Galloway finally off of vacation) news comes of Jim Martins success in gaining an endorsement. I know, this is very surprising considering Jim's utter lack of any organization up until this point.

But wait theres more!

The "big time endorsement" comes from none other than Emanuel Jones, the state Sen. from DeKalb County who is on Martin rival's "home turf." I think Galloway was really happy for the chance to use the word "turf" to build his street cred.

Anyways, the real news is that Emanuel Jones was one State Senator who voted against requiring public employers from verifying the legality of their new employees. No no no because making sure your workers are legally here is really too much to ask.

Thank you Jim Martin for once again proving how out of touch you are.

SENATE DEMOCRATIC FEC VIOLATION

Jim Martin has received a written notice from the FEC warning him of his campaign's failures to disclose financial contributions in their mid year reports.

The report, due 6/25, was not submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Jim had embarrassing numbers in his fundraising and wanted to wait until after the primary to disclose his failures. It wouldn't look good to limp into and out of a primary with little cash-on-hand and total raised money.

Meanwhile, Senator Chambliss has disclosed that he raised over $800,000 in the same period, receiving no FEC violations.

This isn't the first we've heard of violations from Jim and it probably won't be the last.

Update: The rumor is also that Jim Martin is in the midst of a cover up. He said in his last debate he got less than 3% of his money from PACs but now it appears as though the numbers will say otherwise! So he'll eat the FEC fine and continue about his merry way. Jim Martin would rather break the law than come clean.

Letter to Jim Martin from FEC Scroll to bottom Notice of Failure to File