The 2010 Line

The 2010 race for the Governor's seat has already begun to take shape in Georgia with a slew of announcements. And what better time than this holiday season to award the frontrunners and underdogs of the race for each party's nomination. The list comes from least likely to win to most likely.

For The Democrats:

3. Gen. David Poythress
The former Secretary of State (yeah, in 1979) declared at the end of summer that he would be a candidate for Governor in 2010. Poythress stands as good a chance at winning the nomination as Vernon Jones does at convincing us he's not a womanizer: theres a chance, but only if the electorate is very very drunk.

2. DuBose Porter
While not an officially announced candidate for Governor, Porter would have a good shot at winning the nomination. He is reportedly considering a run, and likely lining up financial support. Porter likely would be able to raise more money than Poythress and make it respectable in general. Still, he is clearly a tier two candidate to...

1. Former Gov. Roy Barnes
To be honest, I'll believe it when I see it. Even though Erick over at Peach Pundit thinks Barnes is lining up a run I don't know how likely this really is. Does Barnes really want to run through a primary and general election? He will certainly face primary opposition and the general will be no walk in the park. Still, I believe Barnes represents the only threat from the Democratic Party to win this race. And he's not even an announced candidate. There is time though.

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The Republicans:

5. Ray McBerry
Do I really even have to include him on the list?

4. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland
I don't think Lynn is willing to leave the comfort of his Congressional seat to run for this office but in case he does he starts out with limited statewide appeal. He has also been mocked for his comments describing the Obama family as "uppity." Now to be fair I don't think Westmoreland is a racist, or even incompetent, just careless in one instance. But I do think that kind of carelessness won't win him any followers.

3. Karen Handel
Handel should be a stronger candidate. She's got all the right credentials: held statewide office, has strong support in metro Atlanta, has a record of reform and a conservatism. She nearly has the whole package. The only reason I rank her this low is that I don't think she is going to run. This is clearly her best shot at the Governor's house, but I just have not seen any indications that she's contemplating a run. Disappointing.

2. John Oxendine
If I could rank him lower I would, but theres only two declared candidates at this point and the other I have above him. Oxendine is one of the most incompetent politicans I have ever seen. His stump speeches are boring and his demeanor is unsettling. At one campaign stop he offered a Democratic tracker his card in case he ever need a little personal attention with his insurance. At another he sent a staffer to get him a latte. YES! A LATTE! Apparently this latte craze is not just a one time thing for the Ox. Oxendine's support of the FairTax is also disengenuous. I truly believe he has jumped on the FairTax bandwagon to try to distinguish himself from other conservative candidates and does not really believe or probably understand the proposal. All in all, this man must be defeated because he is the one Republican who could lose in a landslide.

1. Casey Cagle
Cagle has the best shot to win the GOP primary for Governor for several reasons. He is a conservative, he can run a statewide race and win as an underdog, and has statewide name recognition. Cagle also has the all important first name that Georgia politicians relish from Sonny, Saxby, Johnny, and now Casey. I'm just saying they all happen to end in "y"s. Coincidence?

At this point in the race I'd probably vote for Cagle and maybe that colors my judgement a bit, but I just cannot see Oxendine winning people over. I saw his initial list of supporters yesterday and was shocked at how many people he had duped into believing he was a leader. Maybe he's just offering them kickbacks like he did to insurance companies though.